farmdoc's blog post number 468

Today’s the first day of the last month of the 2009 winter. In Mole Creek it’s still dark, cold and wet. Yet here I am writing about a fire brigade/bushfire topic. Again. For the third time in the past four days. The winter must be getting to my brain. Is it seasonal affective disorder? Though the next fire season’s months away, the Mole Creek brigade still trains twice each month – for our skills rust if we don’t polish them; and we have new members to absorb into our team. Whilst we train, we chat. And each winter much of the chat’s about how bad the next fire season’ll be. The prediction’s always bad. If the weather’s dry, then it’ll be bad because the fuel load will be dry. Tinder dry. (The adjective ‘tinder’ always precedes ‘dry’. Here is the definition of ‘tinder.) Or if the weather’s wet – like this winter is – then it’ll be bad because more plant growth means a heavier fuel load. So it’ll be bad whatever the weather. It’s a no-win scenario. So I’ve stopped talking, and worrying, about it. Whatever will be, will be. Even so, I was interested to read this in last Wednesday’s Age. Blimey. Last season’s devastating Victorian bushfires were the worst in recorded history; yet they’re predicting the coming season’s conditions will be even worse. It’s hard to understand. I wonder if it’s not a beat-up – the bushfire equivalent of swine flu – to goad people into adequately preparing. I’ll bet you anything the coming season’s fires will be trivial compared with last season’s. Time will tell.