farmdoc's blog post number 161

Last Thursday’s post was about darling Emily’s song ‘Wetter Spring’ whose hero is a superstitious farmer. I’ve never been superstitious: I walk under ladders with impunity, I’m unbothered when black cats cross my path, I’m unmoved that our Melbourne telephone number includes 666, and to me Friday the 13th is unexceptional. I consider myself a realist because I rate risk according to the laws of nature – not chance, magic or the supernatural. For example take the risk of commercial aviation. The fear of flying is common because websites, courses, DVDs and podcasts are devoted to overcoming it. But your chance of being killed in an aircraft accident is about 1 in 5,000,000. In contrast your chance of being killed in an motor vehicle accident is about 1 in 5,000, i.e. 1,000 times greater. In other words, you’re at far greater risk driving to the airport than getting on a plane. Other kinds of accidents that each year kill more people than aircraft crashes? Bee and wasp stings, choking on food, falling down stairs or from ladders, and even falling out of bed. I understand all that. But darling Kate and her family flew from Phuket to Melbourne last Thursday, and I’m not publishing this post until today. They’re home safe and sound. I’m not superstitious; but even so, I’m not taking any chances.