farmdoc's blog post number 601

Here’s this week’s compendium. This week…
1. Gunns Limited’s chairman John Gay has offloaded 3.4M (i.e. 20%) of his Gunns shares [1]. Hardly a gesture of confidence when Gunns is still seeking finance for its controversial A$2.5B pulp mill project.
2. I read this joke [2]: “Johnnie.” “Yes teacher.” “If there are twenty sheep in a field, and one gets out through a hole in the fence, how many sheep are left in the field?” “None, teacher.” “Johnnie, there are still nineteen sheep left in the field. Obviously you don't know arithmetic.” “Sorry, teacher, but I do know arithmetic. Obviously you don't know sheep.” Yep.
3. the day before President Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, Oslo University named Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ‘Dictator of the Year’ for his achievements in ‘inspiring hostility among nations, increasing human suffering’. There were 11 candidates; Khamenei received over 72% of the 4145 votes [3]. A worthy winner indeed.
4. I read that Israel has the highest density of tech start-ups in the world. Israel’s venture capital dollars per person are 2.5 times the US’s, 30 times Europe’s, 80 times India’s and 300 times China’s. Israel has more companies on NASDAQ than any country except US; and more than all of Europe, Japan, Korea, India, and China combined [4]. A surprise, yet not a surprise.
5. a medical journal paper titled: ‘Age-associated cognitive decline’ calls such decline ‘an important human experience which differs in extent between individuals’. And it says the determinants of the differences in age-related cognitive decline are not fully understood…(but)…There is growing appreciation that factors affecting general bodily ageing also influence cognitive functions in old age [5]. The more research done on cognitive decline and dementia, the more likely scientific breakthroughs will be.
6. the Journal of the American Medical Association published a paper concluding that among women with breast cancer, soy food was significantly associated with decreased risk of death and recurrence[6]. How fascinating.
7. the Age reported that in 2008-9, during the GFC, the profits of Australian businesses soared to record highs. Corporate profits continued to increase – up to a record 27.7% of national income [7]. Why have corporate dividends fallen, then?
8. I was lucky enough to have several Skype conversations with darling Indigo. She has such a wicked sense of humour.
Finally, I wish you, dear Farmdoc's Blog readers, a wonderful week.

farmdoc's blog post number 548

Have you noticed? When you unknowingly touch a hot thing, your hand jerks away from it – instantaneously, and before you realise what’s happened. This is called a reflex response. It’s mediated in the spinal cord. That is, your brain’s not involved – because involving it’d take extra time. It’s like when the doctor taps your kneecap tendon with a plessor (pictured) and your foot jerks. Ten days ago, someone put a smoke bomb on the doorstep of Gunns Limited Chairman, John Gay. And graffitied his fence. Three days later, ex Tasmanian Premier Paul Lennon wrote this op-ed piece in the Examiner, blaming anti pulp mill protesters for the ‘disgraceful vandalism’. The same day, the police announced the vandalism was a drunken prank unrelated to the mill protest. Two days ago, a suicide bomber in Iran killed 42 people – including five senior Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. It occurred in a region long plagued by Sunni insurgents who’ve previously targeted Iranian soldiers and Revolutionary Guards. The same day, and self evidently before the attack was investigated, the Iranian state media, the Iranian military, and Iranian President Ahmadinejad all blamed ‘terrorists backed by the Great Satan America and its ally Britain’. The US and Britain have condemned the attack and denied any involvement. The moral in both cases, and beyond? When responses are fast, until proven otherwise consider them reflexes – which go through no-one’s brain.

farmdoc's blog post number 538

Here’s this week’s compendium. This week…
1. the Age published an article about politicians’ musical tastes [1]. Who gives a toss? I don’t. They should shut up and run the country.
2. there were 21 arrests at an anti pulp mill demo at the government school in Beaconsfield. The school’s principal withdrew the right of some people to be on the school grounds [2]. Those arrested were peaceful, and they weren’t breaking the law. The principal acted beyond his authority. He should be dealt with. But he won’t be. For this is Tasmania.
3. Voltaren Gel’s been shown to be effective treatment for osteoarthritis of the finger joints [3]. That’s good news for me because I have this disease (though until now it’s not been very painful).
4. Monsanto announced a fourth-quarter loss of US$233M, due mainly to a fall in the demand for and price of RoundUp [4]. The only way I’d be happier is if the loss was bigger.
5. Wolf Hall by Hilary Mantel won the 2009 Man Booker Prize for Fiction [5]. Tasmania’s library service has eight copies. I’m number 95 in the queue.
6. Jordan reprimanded Israel following recent riots in Jerusalem’s Old City, which erupted after Israeli police closed the Temple Mount to visitors and Muslim worshippers for fear of violence [6]. Jordan’s hypocrisy’s breathtaking. From 1948 to 1967 when it ruled the Old City, not one Jew was allowed access to the Western Wall.
7. A full 5% of America’s forest-products industry is taken up by toilet paper and tissue paper. Softer tissue requires older trees because their wood fibres are softer [7]. It’s best to use only recycled toilet paper.
8. Darling Jarrah turned six [8]. She’s beautiful and special. And the tooth fairy’s preparing to visit her for the first time.
Finally, I wish you, dear Farmdoc’s Blog readers, a wonderful week.

farmdoc's blog post number 469

Plagiarism. Given my suspicious nature and my interest in forensics, it’s unsurprising that plagiarism fascinates me. A little about why people do it; more about how it’s discovered. I guess that pre-computer it mainly came to light by chance. However now it’s merely a matter of putting a phrase into a Google search box. And so to Tony Burke (pictured). Never heard of him? Well he’s the Federal Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Last 24 June he issued a Ministerial statement on preparing our forest industries for the future. I’d expect a ‘Ministerial statement’ – even from the Forestry Minister – to be impartial and independent. Others are less trusting and more sceptical than I. I don’t know, but they discovered this:

Ministerial statement 2009: ‘Construction of the mill and flow-on investment would create some 8,000 direct and indirect jobs spread across the trades and other areas.’

Gunns statement 2008: ‘Construction of the Pulp Mill and flow-on investment will create some 8,000 direct and indirect jobs spread across the trades and other areas.’

So Minister Burke’s been caught copying and pasting Gunns’ promotional material for his Ministerial statement. And Getup says many ‘facts’ he borrowed from Gunns are outdated, discredited or unsubstantiated. There are calls for him to explain [1, 2, 3] and resign [4, 5]. The plagiarist should do both. If not, the Prime Minister should sack him.

farmdoc's blog post number 228

I’ve written of the IBM technician’s big fee for knowing which button to push and how hard to push it. The message? Oftentimes little things have big impacts. Okay. So back to one of my hobbyhorses – the economically compromised, socially divisive and environmentally destructive pulp mill that Gunns Limited proposes for northern Tasmania. The project cost will reportedly exceed A$2.2b. And thanks to the global credit crisis it looks like the mill won’t happen. But hypothetically even if Gunns had the needed money, the mill proposal would likely die because of something which until recently Gunns had apparently ignored. Water. The mill needs water – lots of it. And it has to come in a 45km pipeline from near Launceston. The West Tamar Council is legally able to, and will, refuse Gunns a pipeline easement across Council land. And several private landholders are refusing Gunns pipeline easements across their farms. So that’s it, then. No easements, no pipeline. No pipeline, no water. No water, no mill. And to date the Bartlett Tasmanian government’s vowed not to intervene. Do I care if the mill proposal is killed by the credit crisis or the people? No, but the latter would be more delicious given the proponent and government have trampled on the democratic process at every opportunity. Gunn’s corporate geniuses should have secured the water supply first. Not last.

farmdoc's blog post number 217

On 26 May 2008 40-year-old David Bartlett became Tasmanian Premier when Paul Lennon suddenly resigned. Regarding Gunns’ pulp mill proposal, Premier Bartlett’s on the record saying I have drawn a line-in-the-sand that says if the proponent can't meet the requirements of the permit and gain finance and substantially commence the project by 30th of November this year then enough is enough (ABC News, 2 July 2008). It can’t. It won’t. In June Premier Bartlett extended the sovereign-risk agreement with Gunns to 30 November – hence the ‘line-in-the-sand’ date. Withdrawal of government support beyond then should include the wood supply agreement between Forestry Tasmania and Gunns, which commits the sale of publicly owned native forests to the pulp mill for 20 years, because Forestry Tasmania’s a government agency. A poll has revealed 73% of Tasmanians want the Premier to maintain his 30 November 2008 line-in-the-sand. Meanwhile, depending who you listen to, the mill project’s either dead or shelved. Gunns is reluctant to declare it dead because that’d mean the tens of millions of dollars already spent, would automatically convert from capital to expense, thus reducing its profit when its share price is plummeting much faster than the S&P/ASX200. Finally if, as I expect, Premier Bartlett reneges on his line-in-the-sand, he’ll hasten the day when the tide of public opinion obliterates him from the political beach.

farmdoc's blog post number 128

On 15 August 2008 Gunns Limited (ASX: GNS), Australia’s largest woodchipper of native (including old growth) forests, issued a profit warning. This triggered a 30% share price fall to a 7-year low until on 21 August at its request GNS began a trading halt pending a company announcement. Gunns, I’ve mentioned, proposes a A$2b financially marginal and environmentally destructive pulp mill at Bell Bay, about 100km north-east of Mole Creek. Stephen Mayne has called Gunns ‘Australia’s most ethically challenged company’ and has asked: ‘How on earth can a company now capitalised at just A$681m and already saddled with more than $1 billion in debt, finance a A$2b pulp mill?’ I doubt the proposed 1:1 rights issue will succeed, so the only solution will be a sellout or joint-venture. Even then, the pulp mill may not be built because its water needs a 50km pipeline from near Launceston, and several farmers reportedly won’t sell Gunns a pipeline easement. And as well as not yet having secured finance for the mill, Gunns won’t meet the deadline for submitting its environmental documentation to the federal government which thus has not signed off on its environmental impact (and shouldn’t, because the mill would generate 2% of Australia’s greenhouse gases). Apparently even the Tasmanian Premier doubts the mill will be built. Stay tuned for the next episode, folks.

farmdoc's blog post number 45

Bell Bay, about 100km north-east of Mole Creek, is where Gunns Limited, Australia’s biggest logging company, with the connivance of the Tasmanian Government, plans to build a A$2b pulp mill. This project’s triple bottom line score is 0/3: at best and with massive public subsidies it will be marginally profitable; it will be environmentally disastrous (including adding 2% to Australia’s greenhouse gases); and it is deeply socially divisive. Last week Gunns’ long-term bank, the ANZ, facing an ongoing campaign of organised public opposition, announced it would not finance the mill. The ANZ’s decision, whether on financial, environmental or social grounds, surprised me. However sweetheart Vivienne, a wise woman, has long maintained that the response to global warming will be led by insurance companies – after their profits are eroded by more frequent and severe weather events – and, adjunctively, banks. The emerging evidence confirms her prescience. Last Monday I learned that Westpac – the only one of Australia’s four major banks whose shares we own – became the first Australian bank to sign the Equator Principles thereby agreeing not to fund projects that endanger communities or the environment, and the Global Compact CEO Water Mandate to tackle the emerging global water crisis. Why did Westpac sign these two documents? I don’t know. I don’t care. It has, and from now it is accountable.