farmdoc's blog post number 102

Whilst the cost of development of vehicles that run on non-petrochemical fuels, and therefore the size of the potential downside risk, is massive, the captains of the automotive manufacturing industry are presumably intelligent, and it’s been apparent for years that peak oil is imminent. The 2006 film documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? shows how General Motors [GM] and other stakeholders including President Reagan, brought GM’s 1990s electric vehicle [EV1] programme to a screaming halt, to the dismay and anger of EV1 lessees whose cars GM repossessed and trashed. But 10-15 years later a seemingly amnesic GM has re-ignited its electric car program, aiming at release before decade’s end of a car named the Volt. But between EV1’s demise and Volt’s nascence, other manufacturers, especially in China and Japan, have pushed on and are set to pre-empt the Volt’s release. Ho hum. Due to supply/demand considerations, petrol prices are unlikely to fall much. So the mid-long term auto future is likely to be hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and plug-in electric. Great. Count me in. But in Victoria most grid electricity is generated from brown coal, so plug-in hybrid and plug-in electric are none too environmental. Tasmania fares better because most grid electricity here is hydroelectric – as long as there’s enough rain to fill the dams to drive the hydro turbines. But that’s another story.